International Angle: East China Sea Heats Up

First Japan buys the disputed islands--then China sends warships to patrol them. BBC has the story.  This can't end well.

It's almost unimaginable, to think of two modern powers with more to lose than to gain actually firing shots in anger over some real estate.  But since we're stuck in the fossil-fuel era, people don't think rationally about things relating to oil, or natural gas.

I don't actually think this will come down to a three way rumble with China, Taiwan, and Japan duking it out over these tiny islands--but that's what they said about Kuwait, too.  Largely, because there's no way the United States will sit back and let China fire on allies over contested territory--and there's no way China wants a couple carrier battle groups with hostile intent in the area.

But these things have been said about other things.  "There's no way Germany will reoccupy the Rhineland.  There's no way Hussein will invade Kuwait.  There's no way the Soviets will invade Afghanistan."  Take your pic.  History is made out of the unthinkable.

This might look like a small escalation, but it just goes to show China isn't intending to back down just because Japan "bought" their "sovereign territory."  That means there's more than a few chapters left to this book.

That's got to be keeping some people in Washington up late.