Delegate Count!
Mitt: 105/1144
Newt: 29/1144
Ron: 18/1144
Ricky: 71/1144
Source: NY Times
***
So in an unrelated search, I came across this article about a recent poll of Ohio Republicans. The upshot is that among the 4 candidates, Ricky is at the front of the pack by 7% points in the new Quinnipiac poll. This isn't a huge shock to me.
Ohio is a rather conservative state, outside the city. In Columbus, we celebrate gay culture (if that's even a valid term), but in the state at large we write second-class status for homosexuals into the state Constitution. We vote people into office who think a valid use of government time is to make laws closing down porn shops and strip clubs. You can't travel between two major cities without seeing billboards about hell and damnation, or the ten commandments (link is to a story about an identical billboard in Kentucky tho). Suffice to say, there's a significant number of people in this state who love Jesus in many of his intolerant forms.
So does it surprise me that Santorum is striking a nerve with the devout in Ohio? Nope. Not one tiny bit. Is it upsetting? Only a little. We are talking about a tiny percentage of the state, the ones likely to vote in the March 6th primary. And we all know primaries do little besides bring the wingnuts out of the woodwork, so I gotta take this with a grain of salt.
Showing posts with label GOP Nomination. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GOP Nomination. Show all posts
Wednesday
Well and the Holy Crap Santorum Does WELL
Delegate Count!
Mitt: 91/1144
Newt: 29/1144
Ron: 8/1144
Ricky: 44/1144
Source: NY Times
***
To say I'm a little surprised to hear about Ricky pulling off wins in ALL THREE CONTESTS is an understatement. As I mentioned in my previous post on the subject, I expected a very strong showing or even win for Ricky in Colorado. I mean, c'mon, Colorado Springs is home to Focus on the Family.
But as the BBC pointed out, Minnesota must have had some serious Tea Party elements who viewed Romney as too moderate. As for Missouri, no one except Santorum was there, because the PRIMARY DOESN'T COUNT. Except, y'know, for the influence it may have on the caucus next month.
I think Newt said it best: Tuesday was the end of any attempt to declare an early winner. The GOP is determined to tear itself apart during this primary season, and we're just gonna have to ride it out.
The show should be pretty good at least!
Mitt: 91/1144
Newt: 29/1144
Ron: 8/1144
Ricky: 44/1144
Source: NY Times
***
To say I'm a little surprised to hear about Ricky pulling off wins in ALL THREE CONTESTS is an understatement. As I mentioned in my previous post on the subject, I expected a very strong showing or even win for Ricky in Colorado. I mean, c'mon, Colorado Springs is home to Focus on the Family.
But as the BBC pointed out, Minnesota must have had some serious Tea Party elements who viewed Romney as too moderate. As for Missouri, no one except Santorum was there, because the PRIMARY DOESN'T COUNT. Except, y'know, for the influence it may have on the caucus next month.
I think Newt said it best: Tuesday was the end of any attempt to declare an early winner. The GOP is determined to tear itself apart during this primary season, and we're just gonna have to ride it out.
The show should be pretty good at least!
Colorado Results
| Rick Santorum | 26,614 | 40.3% |  |
| Mitt Romney | 23,012 | 34.9% | |
| Newt Gingrich | 8,445 | 12.8% | |
| Ron Paul | 7,759 | 11.8% | |
| Other | 197 | 0.3% | |
| Source: AP |
Minnesota Results
| Rick Santorum | 21,727 | 44.9% | |
| Ron Paul | 13,108 | 27.1% | |
| Mitt Romney | 8,157 | 16.9% | |
| Newt Gingrich | 5,203 | 10.8% | |
| Other | 141 | 0.3% | |
| Source: AP |
Missouri Results (Non-binding on Delegates)
| Rick Santorum | 138,957 | 55.2% | |
| Mitt Romney | 63,826 | 25.3% | |
| Ron Paul | 30,641 | 12.2% | |
| Other | 18,444 | 7.3% | |
| Source: AP |
Tuesday
Action Packed Week
Delegate Count!
Mitt: 85/1144
Newt: 29/1144
Ron: 8/1144
Ricky: 16/1144
Source: NY Times
***
So Romney destroys the Nevada results (50%), leaving Newt in the dust (21.1%), who barely outruns Ron (18.8%). Ricky is toddling along behind, spewing his noises of intolerance (10%). Poor widdle Wicky.
Anyhow. Today we have several votes going on...in Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri. Missouri sorta doesn't count, as I learned from the Huffington Post, because the state's delegates are not bound to the results. They have another process that starts next month with a caucus (complicated much?).
I'm most interested in what happens in Colorado. As the home of some serious conservative groups (Focus on the Family, for instance) Ricky is hoping he can convince them he's the most intolerant, god-fearing, would be despot in the field.
On the other hand, there's also a significant Mormon population in Colorado...which plays into Mitt's area of advantage.
BUT there's a third hand! Colorado people tend to be individualistic and anti-government. So perhaps Ron has a shot at a nice showing?
Where does Newt factor in? I have no idea. I'm quite curious, as I said. He'll prolly end up near Romney, as the "Anti-Mitt."
As for Minnesota? My money's on Mitt. Minnesota, if I may generalize and entire state, is pretty level-headed, so Ron and Ricky are out in my view. Newt will work is magic, and could possibly come in a close 2nd...but we shall see.
Mitt: 85/1144
Newt: 29/1144
Ron: 8/1144
Ricky: 16/1144
Source: NY Times
***
So Romney destroys the Nevada results (50%), leaving Newt in the dust (21.1%), who barely outruns Ron (18.8%). Ricky is toddling along behind, spewing his noises of intolerance (10%). Poor widdle Wicky.
Anyhow. Today we have several votes going on...in Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri. Missouri sorta doesn't count, as I learned from the Huffington Post, because the state's delegates are not bound to the results. They have another process that starts next month with a caucus (complicated much?).
I'm most interested in what happens in Colorado. As the home of some serious conservative groups (Focus on the Family, for instance) Ricky is hoping he can convince them he's the most intolerant, god-fearing, would be despot in the field.
On the other hand, there's also a significant Mormon population in Colorado...which plays into Mitt's area of advantage.
BUT there's a third hand! Colorado people tend to be individualistic and anti-government. So perhaps Ron has a shot at a nice showing?
Where does Newt factor in? I have no idea. I'm quite curious, as I said. He'll prolly end up near Romney, as the "Anti-Mitt."
As for Minnesota? My money's on Mitt. Minnesota, if I may generalize and entire state, is pretty level-headed, so Ron and Ricky are out in my view. Newt will work is magic, and could possibly come in a close 2nd...but we shall see.
Wednesday
Skipping Florida? Whuh?
Delegate Count!
Mitt: 71/1144
Newt: 23/1144
Ron: 3/1144
Ricky: 13/1144
Source: NY Times
***
So Ron and Ricky skipped Florida all together. This makes a good amount of sense...it's a winner-takes-all state as far as delegates are concerned. In NH, Paul gained a goodly number of delegates with his 2nd place finish, and even a few for his 4th place in SC. Same story with Ricky. But when there are no delegates up for grabs unless they win, why should they invest limited time and money in the race?
By focusing on Nevada and other Western states where they can pick up delegates even if they don't win, Paul and Ricky are keeping their races alive and improving their positions.
Positions for what? Is a good question.
I recently watched "Borgia" Season 1, and loved the scene where Rodrigo Borgia is threatening, pleading, bribing, and haggling his way to the Pope's hat. Specifically, there's still a deadlock, with Cardinal Sforza holding enough votes to prevent Borgia's accension...but not enough to win himself. Sforza is finally won over by the piece of wisdom: "You cannot be Pope by this Conclave, but you can be something just as good--the Pope-maker!"
Who knows what bargains will be struck when the time comes for these two to bow out? The eventual nominee will need to placate them somehow in order to avoid a protracted battle at the convention. Just another element to watch...
Mitt: 71/1144
Newt: 23/1144
Ron: 3/1144
Ricky: 13/1144
Source: NY Times
***
So Ron and Ricky skipped Florida all together. This makes a good amount of sense...it's a winner-takes-all state as far as delegates are concerned. In NH, Paul gained a goodly number of delegates with his 2nd place finish, and even a few for his 4th place in SC. Same story with Ricky. But when there are no delegates up for grabs unless they win, why should they invest limited time and money in the race?
By focusing on Nevada and other Western states where they can pick up delegates even if they don't win, Paul and Ricky are keeping their races alive and improving their positions.
Positions for what? Is a good question.
I recently watched "Borgia" Season 1, and loved the scene where Rodrigo Borgia is threatening, pleading, bribing, and haggling his way to the Pope's hat. Specifically, there's still a deadlock, with Cardinal Sforza holding enough votes to prevent Borgia's accension...but not enough to win himself. Sforza is finally won over by the piece of wisdom: "You cannot be Pope by this Conclave, but you can be something just as good--the Pope-maker!"
Who knows what bargains will be struck when the time comes for these two to bow out? The eventual nominee will need to placate them somehow in order to avoid a protracted battle at the convention. Just another element to watch...
Monday
Republican GOP Race
So, to recap:
Rick Santorum wins by a hair in Iowa, which I find truly bizarre considering how progressive Iowa tends to be. I mean, Santorum is a one-man intolerance factory. In one of the first states to legalize same-sex marriage...he has that strong a showing? Buhwah? A case of "not Romney?" Is hard to tell. You do have to give him some credit for essentially coming out of nowhere to win like that, even if the margin is pretty pathetic.
TIME had a nice story about how filthy politics can get in South Carolina, so it shouldn't be a shock to anyone that Newt Gingrich pulled off the win. What I find more interesting is that Newt is doing so strongly despite all the allegations of a debauched lifestyle so devoid of the party's prized social conservatism. It shows exactly how fragmented the base is.
Iowa Caucus:
| Rick Santorum | 29,839 | 24.6% | |
| Mitt Romney | 29,805 | 24.5% | |
| Ron Paul | 26,036 | 21.4% | |
| Newt Gingrich | 16,163 | 13.3% | |
| Rick Perry | 12,557 | 10.3% | |
| Michele Bachmann | 6,046 | 5% | |
| Jon Huntsman | 739 | 0.6% | |
| Other | 316 | 0.3% | |
| Source: AP |
Rick Santorum wins by a hair in Iowa, which I find truly bizarre considering how progressive Iowa tends to be. I mean, Santorum is a one-man intolerance factory. In one of the first states to legalize same-sex marriage...he has that strong a showing? Buhwah? A case of "not Romney?" Is hard to tell. You do have to give him some credit for essentially coming out of nowhere to win like that, even if the margin is pretty pathetic.
New Hampshire Primary
| Mitt Romney | 97,532 | 39.3% | |
| Ron Paul | 56,848 | 22.9% | |
| Jon Huntsman | 41,945 | 16.9% | |
| Newt Gingrich | 23,411 | 9.4% | |
| Rick Santorum | 23,362 | 9.4% | |
| Rick Perry | 1,766 | 0.7% | |
| Other | 3,621 | 1.5% | |
| Source: AP Not surprisingly, Romney wins in New Hampshire. I mean, the man was Governor of Massachusetts, and if he wasn't able to wield some influence in NH he didn't need to be running. Also unsurprising was Paul's showing...New Hampshire does like their against-the-grain politicians. |
South Carolina Primary:
| Newt Gingrich | 243,153 | 40.4% | |
| Mitt Romney | 167,279 | 27.8% | |
| Rick Santorum | 102,055 | 17% | |
| Ron Paul | 77,993 | 13% | |
| Other | 10,686 | 1.8% | |
| Source: AP |
What's even more interesting is we have no idea where the race is after three states. Newt and Mitt battle for the front runner spot, while Paul is in a perfect spoiler position with the number of delegates he's earned thus far. Santorum too, is keeping enough momentum going to allow him to muddy the waters.
Curious. VERY curious.
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